Guolin Lai

DSC8240 Course Web

Background
Objective Hierarchies
Variables and Attributes
Influence Diagram
Mathematical Representation
Testing and Validation
Implementation and Use

Background

Joe Gamble loves to play craps at the casinos. He suspects that his chances of winning are less than 50-50, but he figures that he can at least play for quite a while before losing all of his money.

Objective

Assuming that Joe starts with %50 and each bet is worth $5, he wants to know whether he can play 100 games without going broke.

Variables and Attributes

Variable	Variable Type	How Measured	Related to
Probability of winning	Input Variable	%	Win the toss or not
Random number	Input Variable	%	Win the toss or not
Initial wealth	Input Variable	Amount in $	Wealth after each toss
Bet on each game	Input Variable	Amount in $	Wealth after each toss
Maximum no. of games	Input Variable	Integer	Went broke or not

Influence Diagram

Mathematical Representation

Please refer to the Excel demo for details.

Testing and Validation

Implementation and Use

The model can be manipulated in Microsoft Excel.
Please click here to view the Excel Model.